We establish the rate at which the renormalized stress–energy tensor of a massless minimally coupled scalar field in the in-vacuum state of a collapsing null-shell spacetime approaches the corresponding Unruh-state value. At finite exterior radius, we establish the upper bound from the Cauchy-surface decomposition of the Hadamard difference and the branch-cut structure of the retarded Green function. At future null infinity, we show that the leading coefficient in the late-time expansion is nonzero, by computing the branch-cut residue explicitly at small frequency and using the Planck suppression of the thermal spectrum at large frequency to show that the dominant contribution to has a definite sign. The result gives with . The exponent is determined by the branch-point singularity in the Wronskian of the radial wave equation, the same structure responsible for Price’s law. The sign is supported by a physical argument and by the numerical mode data of Gholizadeh Siahmazgi, Anderson, and Fabbri. The result confirms their conjecture that the approach is a power law. We conjecture that the same mechanism gives an analogous bound for gravitational perturbations (), though the extension to the spin-2 case involves gauge issues not addressed here.

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