A refined Malle conjecture for Heisenberg groups

Based on a conjecture of Loughran and the second author, we give an explicit prediction for the leading constant in Malle’s conjecture for Galois $\mathcal{H}$-extensions of $\mathbb{Q}$ ordered by discriminant, where $\mathcal{H}$ is the $3\times 3$ Heisenberg group over ${\mathbb{F}}_4$. The predicted leading constant is not a single Euler product, but rather a sum of two distinct Euler products. Our methods also give an efficient algorithm for computing the conjectural Loughran-Santens leading constant for many $2$-groups of nilpotency class $2$.