Estimation of age-specific excess mortality of men and women with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in Germany

A MCMC approach is used to estimate the age-specific mortality rate ratio for German men and women with RA. For constructing priors, we calculate a range of admissible values from prevalence and incidence data based on about 60 million people in Germany. Using these priors, MCMC mimics and compares estimated mortality to the findings of a recent register study from Denmark. It is estimated that the mortality rate ratio is highest in the young ages (4.0 and 3.5 for men and women aged 17.5 years, respectively) and declines towards higher ages (1.0 and 1.2 for men and women aged 92.5 years, respectively). The lengths of the credibility intervals decrease from younger towards older ages.