Sharp thresholds for spanning regular graphs

Let $d\ge 3$ be a constant and let $F$ be a $d$-regular graph on $[n]$ with not too many symmetries. By the union bound, the probability threshold for the existence of a spanning subgraph in $G(n,p)$ isomorphic to $F$ is at least $p^{\ast }(n)=(1+o(1))(e\mathrm{/}n{)}^{2\mathrm{/}d}$. We give a tight bound on the edge expansion of $F$ guaranteeing that the probability threshold for the appearance of a copy of $F$ has the same order of magnitude as $p^{\ast }$. We also prove that, within a slight strengthening of this bound, the probability threshold is asymptotically equal to $p^{\ast }$. In particular, it proves the conjecture of Kahn, Narayanan and Park on a sharp threshold for the containment of a square of a Hamilton cycle. It also implies that, for $d\ge 4$ and (asymptotically) almost all $d$-regular graphs $F$ on $[n]$, $p(n)=(e\mathrm{/}n{)}^{2\mathrm{/}d}$ is a sharp threshold for $F$-containment.