Degrees of P-Grothendieck polynomials and regularity of Pfaffian varieties

We prove a formula for the degrees of Ikeda and Naruse’s $P$-Grothendieck polynomials using combinatorics of shifted tableaux. We show this formula can be used in conjunction with results of Hamaker, Marberg, and Pawlowski to obtain an upper bound on the Castelnuovo-Mumford regularity of certain Pfaffian varieties known as vexillary skew-symmetric matrix Schubert varieties. Similar combinatorics additionally yields a new formula for the degree of Grassmannian Grothendieck polynomials and the regularity of Grassmannian matrix Schubert varieties, complementing a 2021 formula of Rajchgot, Ren, Robichaux, St. Dizier, and Weigandt.