Watanabe's expansion: A Solution for the convexity conundrum

In this paper, we present a new method for pricing CMS derivatives. We use Mallaivin’s calculus to establish a model-free connection between the price of a CMS derivative and a quadratic payoff. Then, we apply Watanabe’s expansions to quadratic payoffs case under local and stochastic local volatility. Our approximations are generic. To evaluate their accuracy, we will compare the approximations numerically under the normal SABR model against the market standards: Hagan’s approximation, and a Monte Carlo simulation.