Quantum Monte Carlo Calculations of Light Nuclei with Fully Propagated Theoretical Uncertainties

We report on the first quantum Monte Carlo calculations of helium isotopes with fully propagated theoretical uncertainties from the interaction to the many-body observables. To achieve this, we build emulators for solutions to the Faddeev equations for the binding energy and Gamow-Teller matrix element of ${}^3\text{H}$, as well as for auxiliary-field diffusion Monte Carlo calculations of the ${}^4\text{He}$ charge radius, employing local two- and three-body interactions up to next-to-next-to-leading order in chiral effective field theory. We use these emulators to determine the posterior distributions for all low-energy couplings that appear in the interaction up to this order using Bayesian inference while accounting for theoretical uncertainties. We then build emulators for auxiliary-field diffusion Monte Carlo for helium isotopes and propagate the full posterior distributions to these systems. Our approach serves as a framework for $\mathit{\text{ab}}\mathit{\text{initio}}$ studies of atomic nuclei with consistently treated and correlated theoretical uncertainties.