Manin's conjecture for integral points on toric varieties

We formulate a conjecture on the number of integral points of bounded height on log Fano varieties in analogy with Manin’s conjecture on the number of rational points of bounded height on Fano varieties. We also give a prediction for the leading constant which is similar to Peyre’s interpretation of the leading constant in Manin’s conjecture. We give evidence for our conjecture by proving it for toric varieties. The proof is based on harmonic analysis on universal torsors.