Why a Mayor cannot Change the Course of a Pandemic -- An agent-based Study on the Covid Spread on Local Level in Germany

During the COVID-19 pandemic, a large variance of incidence rates on local level, e.g. cities and districts, within one country has been observed, while the same non-pharmaceutical measures have been taken to control the spread of the virus. This variance in incidence rates triggered the question, if the spread of incidence rates can be explained only by statistical processes and the local population statistics or if indeed other factors, e.g. local information campaigns, have to be considered. Within this paper we study the expected spread of incidence rates in the German State of Rhineland Palatinate during the second COVID-19 wave using an agent based simulation and find that the spread of incidence rates can be solely explained by population statistics and further statical effects.