Reply to "Comment on 'Advanced Testing of Low, Medium, and High ECS CMIP6 GCM Simulations Versus ERA5-T2m' by N. Scafetta (2022)" by Schmidt, Jones, and Kennedy (2023)

Schmidt, Jones, and Kennedy’s (SJK) (2023, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL102530) critique of Scafetta (2022, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL097716) is flawed. Their assessment of the error of the ERA-T2m 2011-2021 mean (about 0.10 °C) is 5-10 times overestimated and contradicts published literature. SJK confused natural variability with random noise and mistook the error of the mean of a temperature chronology for the stochastic error of the regression parameter M of a nonphysical isothermal climate model (T(t) = M). SJK’s allegations regarding the internal variability of the models, the role of the global climate model ensemble members, and other issues were partially addressed in Scafetta (2022, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL097716) and, later, more extensively in Scafetta (2023a, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06493-w) where Scafetta’s (2022, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL097716) conclusions were confirmed.