Single-cell mutational burden distributions in birth-death processes

Genetic mutations are footprints of tumour growth. While mutation data in bulk samples has been used to infer evolutionary parameters hard to measure in vivo, the advent of single-cell data has led to strong interest in the mutational burden distribution (MBD) among tumour cells. We introduce dynamical matrices and recurrence relations to integrate this single-cell MBD with known statistics, and derive new analytical expressions. Surprisingly, we find that the shape of the MBD is driven by cell lineage-level stochasticity rather than by the distribution of mutations in each cell division.