Prime order torsion on elliptic curves over number fields. Part I: Asymptotics

We study the asymptotics of the set $S(d)$ of possible prime orders of $K$-rational points on elliptic curves over number fields $K$ of degree $d$ as $d$ tends to infinity. Assuming some conjectures on the sparsity of newforms of weight $2$ and prime level with unexpectedly high analytic rank, we show that $\max S(d)\le 3d+1$ for sufficiently large even $d$ and $\max S(d)=o(d)$ for odd $d$.