Sensitivity of the CUPID experiment to $0\nu \beta \beta$ decay of ${}^{100}$Mo

CUPID is a next-generation bolometric experiment to search for neutrinoless double-beta decay ($0\nu \beta \beta$) of ${}^{100}$Mo using Li${}_2$MoO${}_4$ scintillating crystals. It will operate 1596 crystals at $\sim$10 mK in the CUORE cryostat at the Laboratori Nazionali del Gran Sasso in Italy. Each crystal will be facing two Ge-based bolometric light detectors for $\alpha$ rejection. We compute the discovery and the exclusion sensitivity of CUPID to $0\nu \beta \beta$ in a Frequentist and a Bayesian framework. This computation is done numerically based on pseudo-experiments. For the CUPID baseline scenario, with a background and an energy resolution of $1.0\times {10}^{-4}$ counts/keV/kg/yr and 5 keV FWHM at the Q-value, respectively, this results in a Bayesian exclusion sensitivity (90% c.i.) of ${\widehat{T}}_{1\mathrm{/}2}>1.6\times {10}^{27}\mathrm{y}\mathrm{r}$, corresponding to the effective Majorana neutrino mass of ${\widehat{m}}_{\beta \beta }<9.6$ – $28\mathrm{m}\mathrm{e}\mathrm{V}$. The Frequentist discovery sensitivity (3$\sigma$) is ${\widehat{T}}_{1\mathrm{/}2}=1.0\times {10}^{27}\mathrm{y}\mathrm{r}$, corresponding to ${\widehat{m}}_{\beta \beta }=12$ – $36\mathrm{m}\mathrm{e}\mathrm{V}$.