A Picard rank bound for base surfaces of elliptic Calabi-Yau 3-folds

We compute an explicit rank bound on the Picard group of the compact surfaces, which can serve as the base of an elliptic Calabi-Yau variety with canonical singularities. To bound the Picard rank from above, we develop a novel strategy in birational geometry, motivated in part by the physics of six-dimensional vacua of F-theory as discussed in a companion paper [1] to this one. The derivation of the concrete bound illustrates the strategy and clarifies the origin of the boundedness.