Is Peer-Reviewing Worth the Effort?

How effective is peer-reviewing in identifying important papers? We treat this question as a forecasting task. Can we predict which papers will be highly cited in the future based on venue and “early returns” (citations soon after publication)? We show early returns are more predictive than venue. Finally, we end with constructive suggestions to address scaling challenges: (a) too many submissions and (b) too few qualified reviewers.