Air Pollution and Under-5 Child Mortality: Evidence from China's Coal Power Plant Phase-out Policy

This paper evaluates the impact of a mandatory shutdown policy of small-capacity coal power plants during China’s ${11}^{th}$ 5-Year Plan period (2006–2010) on under-5 mortality. We collect capacity and location information on 2181 coal power plants that operated during 2000–2010 and compile a unique data set that combines coal power plants, county-level under-5 mortality and socioeconomic variables, high spatial resolution data of PM${}_{2.5}$ and SO${}_2$ and meteorological conditions. We model the impacts of air pollution on under-5 mortality using the IV-Lasso method, with distance-weighted sums of retired capacity and high-altitude wind status as instrumental variable candidates for air pollution. Our estimates imply that the phase-out policy saved around 46,000 lives during the ${11}^{th}$ 5-Year Plan period. We also find heterogeneity in the policy effects across regions. ($\mathit{\text{JEL}}$ I10, I18, P25, P28, Q52, Q53, Q58)