Detecting the most probable transition phenomenon of a nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton system

The population biology model holds a significant position within ecosystems. Introducing stochastic perturbations into the model can more accurately depict real biological processes. In this paper, we primarily investigate the most probable transition phenomenon in a three-dimensional nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton (NPZ) plankton model. With appropriate parameter values, the system coexists with a stable equilibrium point and a stable limit cycle. Under noise perturbations, transitions occur between these two steady states. Based on the Onsager-Machlup action functional and the neural shooting method, we have studied the most probable transition time, the most probable transition pathway and the most probable transition probability of the NPZ system. The transition between these metastable states plays a crucial role in stochastic ecosystems, providing guidance for a better understanding of complex biological processes.