Classification of Horikawa surfaces with T-singularities

We classify all projective surfaces with only T-singularities, ample canonical class, and $K^2=2p_g-4$. In this way, we identify all surfaces, smoothable or not, with only T-singularities in the Kollár–Shepherd-Barron–Alexeev (KSBA) moduli space of Horikawa surfaces. We also prove that they are not smoothable when $p_g\ge 10$, except for the Lee-Park (Fintushel-Stern) examples, which we show to have only one deformation type unless $p_g=6$ (in which case they have two). This demonstrates that the challenging Horikawa problem cannot be addressed through complex T-degenerations. We propose new questions regarding diffeomorphism types based on our classification. Furthermore, the techniques developed in this paper enable us to classify all KSBA surfaces with only T-singularities and $K^2\le 2p_g-3$, for example, quintic surfaces and I-surfaces.