Transition from inspiral to plunge for eccentric equatorial Kerr orbits

Ori and Thorne have discussed the duration and observability (with LISA) of the transition from circular, equatorial inspiral to plunge for stellar-mass objects into supermassive (${10}^5-{10}^8{M}_{\odot }$) Kerr black holes. We extend their computation to eccentric Kerr equatorial orbits. Even with orbital parameters near-exactly determined, we find that there is no universal length for the transition; rather, the length of the transition depends sensitively – essentially randomly – on initial conditions. Still, Ori and Thorne’s zero-eccentricity results are essentially an upper bound on the length of eccentric transitions involving similar bodies (e.g., $a$ fixed). Hence the implications for observations are no better: if the massive body is $M={10}^6{M}_{\odot }$, the captured body has mass $m$, and the process occurs at distance $d$ from LISA, then $S/N \lesssim (m/10 M_{\odot})(1$\text{Gpc}$/d)\times O(1)$, with the precise constant depending on the black hole spin. For low-mass bodies ($m\lesssim 7M_{\odot }$) for which the event rate is at least vaguely understood, we expect little chance (probably [much] less than 10%, depending strongly on the astrophysical assumptions) of LISA detecting a transition event with $S\mathrm{/}N>5$ during its run; however, even a small infusion of higher-mass bodies or a slight improvement in LISA’s noise curve could potentially produce $S\mathrm{/}N>5$ transition events during LISA’s lifetime.