We study the large-scale behavior of the coincidence set of perturbations of global solutions to the classical obstacle problem in , with blow-down invariant in the direction. In dimensions , we prove that, locally around regular points sufficiently far out, the cross-sections of perpendicular to are perturbations of ellipsoids. The main ingredient is a new large-scale almost monotonicity formula for the Alt–Caffarelli–Friedman functional. In contrast with the classical small-scale perturbative theory, our argument exploits the stability of the obstacle problem together with the fact that local perturbations vanish under blow-down. The method provides a model mechanism for controlling errors at infinity in stable free boundary problems.

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