Nonequilibrium Theory for Adaptive Systems in Varying Environments

Biological organisms are adaptive, able to function in unpredictably changing environments. Drawing on recent nonequilibrium physics, we show that in adaptation, fitness has two components parameterized by observable coordinates: a static Generalism component characterized by state distributions, and a dynamic Tracking component sustained by nonequilibrium fluxes. Our findings: (1) General Theory: We prove that tracking gain scales strictly with environmental variability and switching time-scales; near-static or fast-switching environments are not worth tracking. (2) Optimal Strategies: We explain optimal bet-hedging and phenotypic memory as the interplay between these components. (3) Control: We demonstrate, with an example, how to suppress pathogens by independently attacking their Generalism robustness (via environmental time fractions) and Tracking capabilities (via environmental switching speed). This work provides a physical framework for understanding and controlling adaptivity.