Irradiance Variations due to Orbital and Solar Inertial Motion: The Effect on Earth's Surface Temperature

Variation in total solar irradiance is thought to have little effect on the Earth’s surface temperature because of the thermal time constant–the characteristic response time of the Earth’s global surface temperature to changes in forcing. This time constant is large enough to smooth annual variations but not necessarily variations having a longer period such as those due to solar inertial motion; the magnitude of these surface temperature variations is estimated.