1I/`Oumuamua and the Problem of Survival of Oort Cloud Comets Near the Sun

A 2000-2017 set of long-period comets with high-quality orbits of perihelion distance <1 AU is used to show that the objects that perish shortly before perihelion are nearly exclusively the Oort Cloud comets, especially those with perihelia within 0.6 AU of the Sun, intrinsically fainter, and dust poor. Their propensity for disintegration is much higher than predicted by Bortle’s perihelion survival rule, prompting the author to propose a new synoptic index to be tested in future prognostication efforts. By their susceptibility to demise near the Sun, the nuclei of Oort Cloud comets differ dramatically from the nuclei of other long-period comets that almost always survive. In this scenario, Oumuamua -- discovered after perihelion -- is in all probability a major piece of debris of an interstellar comet that was bound to perish near perihelion if it was similar to, though much fainter than, the known Oort Cloud comets. The nondetection of Oumuamua by the Spitzer Space Telescope is compatible with optical data for pancake shape, but not for cigar shape, with the maximum dimension not exceeding 160 m (at an 0.1 albedo). Although the solar radiation pressure induced nongravitational acceleration requires very high porosity, Oumuamua's estimated mass is orders of magnitude greater than for a cloud of unbound submicron-sized dust grains of equal cross section. The acceleration could have displaced Oumuamua by 250,000 km in 50 days, scattering other potential debris over a large volume of space.