Verlinde formulae on complex surfaces: K-theoretic invariants

We conjecture a Verlinde type formula for the moduli space of Higgs sheaves on a surface with a holomorphic 2-form. The conjecture specializes to a Verlinde formula for the moduli space of sheaves. Our formula interpolates between $K$-theoretic Donaldson invariants studied by the first named author and Nakajima-Yoshioka and $K$-theoretic Vafa-Witten invariants introduced by Thomas and also studied by the first and second named authors. We verify our conjectures in many examples (e.g. on K3 surfaces).