Confinement from Correlated Instanton-Dyon Ensemble in SU(2) Yang-Mills Theory

We study the confinement phase transition in $SU(2)$ Yang-Mills theory, based on a statistical ensemble model of correlated instanton-dyons. We show for the first time that such a model provides a quantitative description, in light of the lattice data, for the temperature dependence of the order parameter. We characterize the short-range interaction which plays a crucial role for the properties of such ensemble. The chromo-magnetic charge density as well as the spatial correlations is found to be consistent with known lattice and phenomenological information.