Optimal lower bounds on hitting probabilities for non-linear systems of stochastic fractional heat equations

We consider a system of $d$ non-linear stochastic fractional heat equations in spatial dimension $1$ driven by multiplicative $d$-dimensional space-time white noise. We establish a sharp Gaussian-type upper bound on the two-point probability density function of $(u(s,y),u(t,x))$. From this result, we deduce optimal lower bounds on hitting probabilities of the process ${u(t, x): (t, x) \in [0, \infty[ \times $\mathbb{R}$}$ in the non-Gaussian case, in terms of Newtonian capacity, which is as sharp as that in the Gaussian case. This also improves the result in Dalang, Khoshnevisan and Nualart [\textit{Probab. Theory Related Fields} $\mathbf{\text{144}}$ (2009) 371–424] for systems of classical stochastic heat equations. We also establish upper bounds on hitting probabilities of the solution in terms of Hausdorff measure.