Increasing Geminid meteor shower activity

Mathematical modelling has shown that activity of the Geminid meteor shower should rise with time, and that was confirmed by analysis of visual observations 1985–2016. We do not expect any outburst activity of the Geminid shower in 2017, even though the asteroid (3200) Phaethon has close approach to Earth in December of 2017. A small probability to observe dust ejected at perihelia 2009–2016 still exists.