This paper analyses a model for the intensity of distribution for rays propagating without absorption in a random medium. The random medium is modelled as a dynamical map. After iterations, the intensity is modelled as a sum of contributions from different trajectories, each of which is a product of independent identically distributed random variables , representing successive focussing or de-focussing events. The number of ray trajectories reaching a given point is assumed to proliferate exponentially: , for some . We investigate the probability distribution of . We find a phase transition as parameters of the model are varied. There is a phase where the fluctuations of are suppressed as , and a phase where the has large fluctuations, for which we provide a large deviation analysis.

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