Curtail Renewables to Enhance Flexibility: A Regulated Forecast-based Dispatch Approach

This paper considers the flexibility degradation problem caused by excessive flexible ramping product (FRP) requirements with high variable energy resource (VER) penetration}. Based on the rolling-window co-optimization model of energy and FRP, theoretical analysis of this paper reveals a unit dispatch transfer effect, in which high FRP requirements under forecast-based dispatch (FBD) constrain real-time flexibility and distort economic efficiency. To alleviate this effect, a regulated forecast-based dispatch (RFBD) approach is proposed, which moderately caps VER outputs and enhances system flexibility. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed approach effectively lowers FRP requirements and reduces operating cost compared with FBD.