Finding Bottlenecks: Predicting Student Attrition with Unsupervised Classifier

With pressure to increase graduation rates and reduce time to degree in higher education, it is important to identify at-risk students early. Automated early warning systems are therefore highly desirable. In this paper, we use unsupervised clustering techniques to predict the graduation status of declared majors in five departments at California State University Northridge (CSUN), based on a minimal number of lower division courses in each major. In addition, we use the detected clusters to identify hidden bottleneck courses.