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A nonlinear Schr"odinger equation with variable coefficients for surface waves on a large-scale steady nonuniform current has been derived without the assumption of a relative smallness of the velocity of the current. This equation can describe with good accuracy the loss of modulation stability of a wave coming to a counter current, leading to the formation of so called rogue waves. Some theoretical estimates are compared to the numerical simulation with the exact equations for a two-dimensional potential motion of an ideal fluid with a free boundary over a nonuniform bottom at a nonzero average horizontal velocity.

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