We study theoretically the erosion threshold of a granular bed forced by a viscous fluid. We first introduce a novel model of interacting particles driven on a rough substrate. It predicts a continuous transition at some threshold forcing , beyond which the particle current grows linearly $J\sim \theta-\theta_c$, in agreement with experiments. The stationary state is reached after a transient time which diverges near the transition as with . The model also makes quantitative testable predictions for the drainage pattern: the distribution of local current is found to be extremely broad with , spatial correlations for the current are negligible in the direction transverse to forcing, but long-range parallel to it. We explain some of these features using a scaling argument and a mean-field approximation that builds an analogy with -models. We discuss the relationship between our erosion model and models for the depinning transition of vortex lattices in dirty superconductors, where our results may also apply.

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