Data-Driven Control via Conditional Mean Embeddings: Formal Guarantees via Uncertain MDP Abstraction

Controlling stochastic systems with unknown dynamics and under complex specifications is specially challenging in safety-critical settings, where performance guarantees are essential. We propose a data-driven policy synthesis framework that yields formal performance guarantees for such systems using conditional mean embeddings (CMEs) and uncertain Markov decision processes (UMDPs). From trajectory data, we learn the system’s transition kernel as a CME, then construct a finite-state UMDP abstraction whose transition uncertainties capture learning and discretization errors. Next, we generate a policy with formal performance bounds through robust dynamic programming. We demonstrate and empirically validate our method through a temperature regulation benchmark.