Surveillance of the Incidence of Noncommunicable Diseases (NCDs) with Prevalence Data: Theory and Application to Diabetes in Denmark

Secular trends of the incidence of NCDs are especially important as they indicate changes of the risk profile of a population. The article describes a method for detecting secular trends in the incidence from a series of prevalence data - without requiring costly follow-up studies or running a register. After describing the theory, the method is applied to the incidence of diabetes in Denmark.