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Given an elliptic curve and a positive integer , we consider the problem of counting the number of primes for which the reduction of modulo possesses exactly points over . On average (over a family of elliptic curves), we show bounds that are significantly better than what is trivially obtained by the Hasse bound. Under some additional hypotheses, including a conjecture concerning the short interval distribution of primes in arithmetic progressions, we obtain an asymptotic formula for the average.

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