We present a reduced model for the transition to turbulence in shear flow
that is simple enough to admit a thorough numerical investigation while
allowing spatio-temporal dynamics that are substantially more complex than
those allowed in previous modal truncations. Our model allows a comparison of
the dynamics resulting from initial perturbations that are localised in the
spanwise direction with those resulting from sinusoidal perturbations. For
spanwise-localised initial conditions the subcritical transition to a
turbulent' state (i) takes place more abruptly, with a boundary between laminar and turbulent’ flow that is appears to be much less `structured’ and
(ii) results in a spatiotemporally chaotic regime within which the lifetimes of
spatiotemporally complicated transients are longer, and are even more sensitive
to initial conditions. The minimum initial energy required for a
spanwise-localised initial perturbation to excite a chaotic transient has a
power-law scaling with Reynolds number with .
The exponent depends only weakly on the width of the localised perturbation
and is lower than that commonly observed in previous low-dimensional models
where typically . The distributions of lifetimes of chaotic
transients at fixed Reynolds number are found to be consistent with exponential
distributions.

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