Robotic assembly of complex, non-convex geometries with tight clearances remains a challenging problem, demanding precise state estimation for successful insertion. In this work, we propose a novel framework that relies solely on contact states to estimate the full SE(3) pose of a peg relative to a hole. Our method constructs an online submanifold of contact states through primitive motions with just 6 seconds of online execution, subsequently mapping it to an offline contact manifold for precise pose estimation. We demonstrate that without such state estimation, robots risk jamming and excessive force application, potentially causing damage. We evaluate our approach on five industrially relevant, complex geometries with 0.1 to 1.0 mm clearances, achieving a 96.7% success rate - a 6x improvement over primitive-based insertion without state estimation. Additionally, we analyze insertion forces, and overall insertion times, showing our method significantly reduces the average wrench, enabling safer and more efficient assembly.

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