Using contour-integral representations of the permanent and of the Hafnian, we turn the computation of their moments for random matrices into a replica calculation, analogous to that of the moments of the partition function of a mean-field spin glass. For the -th moment of matrices with independent entries, the dominant saddle point is replica symmetric for , and we obtain in closed form the exponential growth rate, the prefactor and the first correction, in agreement with exact enumerations. The growth rate depends only on whether the entries are real or complex; higher cumulants affect only the prefactor and the term. At the replica-symmetric solution becomes unstable, separating a power-law bulk of the distribution from a large-deviation tail, which we compute. The results apply to boson sampling with single photons and with squeezed light.

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