For , two expectation equations identify the mean together with the th central moment. How many coordinates must a report have if a one-observation loss uniquely elicits it and the report determines that moment? We prove that coordinates are necessary and sufficient among all identifiable intermediaries. The result holds on every open convex set of positive distributions on any distinct real outcomes. It requires no regularity of the loss, report map, identification function, or link. Thus while , giving an unbounded gap between identifiable elicitation and indirect identification. This resolves the central-moment conjecture of Frongillo and Kash on the stated domains. The proof constructs a manifold of supporting coefficients from the affine fibers of a convex negative Bayes risk. Translations along that manifold force an -dimensional tangent space. Standardized moments of order at least three have the same exact complexity. The bound also extends to convex distribution classes with a full-dimensional raw-moment image.

生成讲解博客的中文版本

生成AI智能校验的中文版本