Exact probability laws of random inner products: Dirichlet splines, overlaps, uncertainty, and Bargmann invariants

Inner products of random matrices and random quantum states—such as orbital inner products, expectation values, overlaps, and cyclic Bargmann invariants—are shown to follow from two underlying mechanisms: the diagonal of an induced random state is Dirichlet distributed, and the expectation value of a random pure state in a rank-one or two-by-two operator is a numerical shadow on an elliptical disk. For states induced by an environment of dimension $K$, the expectation value of any observable is a Curry–Schoenberg spline with each eigenvalue repeated $K$ times, and the vector of moments has an explicit density on a simplex; for a qutrit, the variance law is obtained in finite form. The overlap of two random qubit states attains its mode at its mean for every rotation-invariant ensemble, but for Hilbert–Schmidt qutrits the density at the mean has a strictly negative derivative, so mode and mean separate; for large environments, the centred overlap converges to a variance-gamma law rather than a Gaussian. For two noncommuting qubit observables, the joint law of the two standard deviations is derived for all $K$, and the probability of coming within a small distance of the optimal sum of variances scales as a power of that distance, with a different exponent when the Bloch axes are orthogonal. For three Haar-random qubit states, the exact density of the Bargmann invariant is given in terms of a complete elliptic integral, together with its local behaviour and elementary marginals. In every dimension, the probability that its real part is negative—certifying basis-independent coherence—is computed, along with all mixed moments. For cycles of arbitrary length, the invariant is shown to be driven by an exact three-parameter Markov chain, and the logarithm of its modulus obeys a law of large numbers and a central limit theorem.