Calibration-Free Early Stopping for Chain-of-Thought Reasoning via E-processes

Reasoning large language models (LLMs) benefit from test-time scaling, motivating adaptive policies that spend tokens when they help and stop early otherwise. Existing rules halt when a confidence or stability signal crosses a threshold, but such thresholds rarely transfer across models and datasets, and validation-calibrated rules lose their guarantee under shifts in test-time horizon or signal dynamics. We reframe adaptive stopping as sequential evidence accumulation along the reasoning trajectory rather than threshold calibration on held-out data. Our framework runs two e-processes on a shared per-chunk signal: a commit stream tracks the signal’s position relative to its slow trend, and an abstain stream tracks its signed velocity, making the two anti-correlated by construction. Under signal-level nulls on the per-chunk increments, Ville’s inequality yields an anytime-valid signal-level false-alarm bound at user-specified significance levels, with no held-out calibration. Across various model–dataset combinations, the framework matches or exceeds calibration-based stopping on the token–accuracy Pareto front using zero calibration data, and the same significance level transfers unchanged across cells where calibration becomes infeasible.