Almost all finite groups are $2$-groups of class two

We prove that almost all finite groups are $2$-groups of nilpotency class two, when groups of order at most $x$ are counted up to isomorphism and $x\to \mathrm{\infty }$. More precisely, uniformly for $2^m\le x<2^{m+1}$, all but an $O(2^{-c{m}^2})$ proportion have order $2^m$ and class two, for some absolute constant $c>0$. For each fixed prime $p$, we give a formula for the number of groups of order $p^m$, with relative error $O(p^{-m\mathrm{/}3})$ as $m\to \mathrm{\infty }$. This refines the classical logarithmic estimates for the number of $p$-groups. For every fixed prime $p$ and sufficiently large $m$, we also prove that all but a $p^{-m^2\mathrm{/}300}$ proportion of groups of order $p^m$ have central elementary abelian Frattini subgroup. For fixed $p$, the distribution of the minimum number of generators among groups of order $p^m$ is asymptotically supported on one or two adjacent values, with explicit probabilities depending on $m$ modulo three.