Joint-Embedding Predictive Architectures (JEPAs) are prone to representation collapse, typically mitigated through empirical heuristics. We develop an early-training stability theory that unifies these heuristics. Linearising the coupled JEPA gradient flow around the trivial fixed point reveals two competing effects: a driving force () and a decay effect (). Under approximate spectral decoupling, a per-mode stability ratio factorises into independent data-side and predictor-side terms and the count of unstable modes tracks the rank of representations that can emerge. The framework predicts a phase boundary, which we confirm empirically across more than 800 Tabular-JEPA configurations. It also unifies predictor scaling, masking ratio, and EMA as distinct mechanisms for shifting . Guided by this analysis, we introduce ResidualPred, a transformer predictor whose attention is biased toward the identity at initialisation; it improves both effective rank and downstream accuracy on tabular benchmarks and in I-JEPA pretraining on CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, STL-10, and ImageNet. Our framework connects empirical collapse-avoidance heuristics to an explicit dynamical picture, yielding theory-driven stabilizers. Code is available at https://github.com/jose-melo/drive-vs-decay.

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