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Microwave breakdown driven by electron cyclotron (EC) waves provides a non-inductive route to plasma initiation in reactor-scale tokamaks. We introduce a three-dimensional Monte Carlo simulation that, for the first time, self-consistently treats nonlinear wave-particle interactions, atomic collisions, and guiding-center transport. The Monte Carlo simulation unveils the key role of parallel Brownian motion in the ionization avalanche mechanism. The predicted breakdown boundary is validated against KSTAR experiments. This work concludes that microwave gas breakdown will be successful under ITER-relevant conditions at a D prefill pressure near 2 mPa with 1 MW of injected EC power.

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