A reanalysis of the megamaser Hubble constant: from spot catalogues to peculiar velocities

The Hubble tension motivates careful scrutiny of the redshift-independent distances underpinning the local distance ladder. Water megamasers afford a purely geometric distance from orbital dynamics in an accretion disc. For five of the six Megamaser Cosmology Project (MCP) galaxies, we present a Bayesian forward model that infers the angular-diameter distance and warped Keplerian disc parameters jointly from the very long baseline interferometry quasi-observables: maser spot positions, velocities, and accelerations. We then constrain $H_0$ from these distances and the host redshifts, including a physical distance prior, modelling the galaxy sample selection and testing a linear and a non-linear peculiar-velocity reconstruction. Accounting for peculiar velocities with the non-linear Manticore reconstruction, we infer $H_0=71.6\pm 3.7$ km/s/Mpc, where the uncertainty is statistical. Relative to ignoring peculiar velocities, the linear and non-linear reconstructions lower $H_0$ by $0.8$–$1.4$ and $1.6$–$2.1$ km/s/Mpc, respectively, whereas changing the selection variable alters it by less than $1$ km/s/Mpc. We analyse the sixth galaxy, NGC 4258, separately. Modelling its disc as eccentric and quadratically warped, we infer an angular-diameter distance of $7.558\pm 0.073$ (stat.) Mpc, within $0.13\sigma$ of the published maser distance.