Rapid drone-based wildfire detection at a fraction of current prevention spending

Early wildfire detection is critical to prevent small ignitions from escalating into large-scale disasters, yet current monitoring systems lack a quantitative framework for allocating detection infrastructure at scale. We jointly optimize the placement of monitoring infrastructure and the routing of autonomous drones under realistic operational constraints to quantify the investment required for rapid, large-scale wildfire detection. Evaluated out-of-sample on 3,693 California ignitions from 2021-2024, an optimized drone network operating at a $100millionfive-yearbudgetdetects97.3$20 million per year, roughly 5% of California’s annual wildfire-prevention expenditure. Under current technology costs, drone-based monitoring is substantially more cost-effective than static ground sensors. Detection is governed primarily by spatial coverage, while routing strategy mainly determines detection speed.