We give a rigorous realization of the dilute instanton picture for a semiclassical Schrödinger operator with a symmetric double-well potential on . Using a localized Feynman–Kac representation, we decompose the heat-kernel trace according to the number of passages made by a Brownian bridge between shrinking neighborhoods of the two wells. We identify the weight of one passage with a hopping coefficient , On the exponentially long time scale , the number of passages converges, for every fixed , to a Poisson random variable of mean . We identify and obtain Thus the familiar instanton expansion of the double-well eigenvalue splitting emerges directly from a factorization of the heat-kernel trace.

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