Exact random covers of metric trees: balanced rounding, duality, and sharp thresholds

Norin and Turcotte’s asymptotically sharp bound for graph burning [J. Combin. Theory Ser. B 168 (2024), 208–235] led them to an exact random-cover conjecture for finite metric trees. Let $U[0,r]$ be the uniform probability measure on $[0,r]$. They conjectured that every finite metric tree $T$ of length $L\ge 2r$ admits a probability measure on $0$-good ball covers whose expected radius measure is at most $(L\mathrm{/}r)U[0,r]$. We prove the conjecture for every finite metric tree. We recast the bootstrapping calculation of Norin and Turcotte as a zero-error replacement certificate. The resulting local scale reduction, together with a three-piece decomposition and a macro-recursion, produces a fractional marked-ball cover with the exact radius budget. We then pass from the fractional cover to random finite covers by a compact rounding argument. For metric-tree balls, Tamir’s balancedness theorem and standard balanced-matrix ideality provide the finite-dimensional integrality input. We also prove an arbitrary-budget duality criterion. If $0<R\le L$ and $\beta$ is a finite positive Borel measure on $[0,R]$, then $\beta$ dominates the expected radius measure of a random $0$-good cover if and only if $\sigma (T)\le {\int }_{[0,R]}{\max }_{v\in T}\sigma (B_T(v,s))d\beta (s)$ for every finite positive Borel measure $\sigma$ on $T$; it is enough to test finite atomic measures. We use this criterion to extend the uniform range to every $r\le L-\mathrm{diam}(T)\mathrm{/}2$, determine the exact range for equal-arm metric stars, and derive deterministic bounds, interval rigidity, and a diameter-defect stability estimate.