Thermal scaling laws for open-water swimming

Open-water swimming defines a thermal phase-boundary problem in which metabolic heat production competes with environmental heat loss. We derive a scaling law that predicts the critical water temperature and shows how body size, swim pace, and insulation shift this boundary. Longitudinal warm- and cold-water data reveal transient dynamics that exceed single-compartment predictions, but emerge naturally from core–peripheral physiology. Together, our results suggest that thermal safety depends on swimmer-specific characteristics and swimming conditions, not on water temperature alone.