A memory-based three-state model of competing technology adoption: substitution regimes, multi-homing, and churn

Technologies, products, platforms, and behavioral routines often compete through gradual adoption, reinforcement-dependent use, and temporary multi-homing. We formulate a homogeneous, well-mixed, three-state agent-based model of competition between an incumbent option (X) and a challenger (Y). Agents are exclusive users of (X), exclusive users of (Y), or dual adopters (Z). Adoption is memory-based: an exclusive user adds the alternative only after enough adoption-relevant encounters within a finite learning window. Retention is also memory-based: a dual adopter continues to use both options only if each is sufficiently reinforced within a finite retention window. This microscopic mechanism reproduces aggregate usage signatures analogous to the four Adner–Kapoor technology-substitution regimes—creative destruction, robust coexistence, the illusion of resilience, and robust resilience—without explicitly representing ecosystems, complementors, prices, or strategic investment. Starting from the same small challenger seed, the benchmark simulations differ only in adoption burden, retention burden, post-adoption usage preference, and the teaching role of dual adopters. Rolling usage shares reproduce the four aggregate substitution patterns, while state-resolved trajectories and phase portraits reveal distinct microscopic pathways. Thus, similar market-level substitution curves need not have unique causal interpretations: although ecosystem mechanisms may be essential in many empirical cases, finite-memory learning and retention alone can generate qualitatively similar regimes. The model provides a compact baseline linking technology-substitution trajectories to observable individual-level adoption, multi-homing, and discontinuance.